Not every swing point has the same job. Some are likely to hold, others are likely to be taken out. Labelling them strong or weak tells you where to protect a trade and where to aim it.
Strong points: the ones that caused a break
In an uptrend, the strong low is the swing low that launched the most recent bullish BOS. Buyers defended it hard enough to take out the previous high. For the uptrend to stay intact, that low has to hold, which makes it the natural place for a stop, just beyond it.
In a downtrend, the strong high is the swing high that launched the most recent bearish BOS.
Weak points: the ones that haven't been broken yet
In an uptrend, the latest swing high is a weak high. Nothing has broken it yet, but if the trend continues, price is expected to take it out, along with the buy-stops and breakout orders resting above it. That makes it a natural target.
In a downtrend, the latest swing low is a weak low, and the expected target.
| Trend | Strong (protect) | Weak (target) |
|---|---|---|
| Uptrend | The low that caused the last BOS | The latest swing high |
| Downtrend | The high that caused the last BOS | The latest swing low |
How to use them
- Stops: place them beyond the strong point. If price reaches it, the structure that justified the trade has failed.
- Targets: aim at the weak point, or beyond it if structure supports more.
- Bias: while the strong point holds, keep looking for trades with the trend. When it breaks, you have a CHoCH.
Key takeaways
- A strong low (in an uptrend) is the swing low that caused the latest BOS; it is expected to hold.
- A weak high (in an uptrend) is the latest unbroken high; it is the likely target.
- In a downtrend, the strong high is protected and the weak low is targeted.
- Place stops beyond strong points, aim targets at weak points, and update both after every BOS.