A handful of economic releases move markets far more than the rest. Most come from the US, because the dollar and US yields drive so much of global trading. You don't need to forecast them; you need to know when they land and what a surprise usually does.
| Release | Measures | When (New York time) | Why markets care |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-farm payrolls (NFP) | Jobs added, unemployment rate, wages | Usually the first Friday of the month, 08:30 | Labour strength feeds directly into Fed policy |
| CPI | Consumer price inflation | Monthly, around mid-month, 08:30 | The headline inflation number the market reacts to most |
| PCE prices | The Fed's preferred inflation measure | Monthly, 08:30 | Confirms or contradicts CPI |
| GDP | Economic growth | Quarterly (with revisions), 08:30 | Recession or expansion |
| ISM PMIs | Business activity surveys; 50 = no change | Early each month, 10:00 | Early signal of growth turning |
| Retail sales | Consumer spending | Monthly, 08:30 | The consumer drives most of the US economy |
| FOMC decision | Fed interest rates | Eight times a year, 14:00 | The single biggest scheduled event |
Actual vs forecast
Every release has a consensus forecast. The market prices that in beforehand. What moves price is the gap between the actual number and the forecast, and any revision to the previous figure.
Reading the reaction
- Strong data (hot inflation, strong jobs) → higher rate expectations → stronger currency, higher yields.
- Weak data → lower rate expectations → weaker currency, lower yields.
- Stocks can go either way: good growth news is good for earnings, but if it means higher rates, stocks may fall.
Other economies
Each country has its own versions: UK CPI and jobs data, Eurozone flash CPI and PMIs, Japanese CPI, Australian employment, Canadian jobs (often released at the same time as US NFP). Trade a currency, and its home country's releases matter as much as the US ones.
Key takeaways
- NFP, CPI, PCE, GDP, ISM PMIs, retail sales and FOMC decisions are the US releases that matter most.
- Most US data lands at 08:30 New York time; FOMC decisions at 14:00.
- Markets react to the surprise: the gap between actual and forecast.
- Strong data usually lifts the currency and yields; the effect on stocks depends on what it means for rates.