Chapter 4 of 10

Trends and channels

Identifying a trend, drawing trendlines and channels, and spotting when a trend is tiring.

"The trend is your friend" is the oldest saying in trading. Trading with the trend means your trades have the market's main flow behind them. But first you have to agree on what a trend is.

Defining a trend

An uptrend makes higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL): each rally goes further than the last, and each pullback stops above the previous one. A downtrend makes lower highs and lower lows. When neither is happening, the market is in a range. Module 3 turns this into a precise, rule-based way of reading structure.

Trendlines

A trendline connects the swing lows in an uptrend (or the swing highs in a downtrend). Two points let you draw a line; a third touch confirms that the market is respecting it. The line gives you a visual guide to where pullbacks might end.

HLHHHLHHHLHHTrendline through the lowsChannel line through the highsBreak
An uptrend in a channel. The trendline joins the higher lows; a parallel line through the highs completes the channel. The close below the trendline is the first warning that the trend may be ending.

Drawing trendlines well

  • Connect clear swing points, not random wicks, and be consistent about using wicks or bodies.
  • Steep trendlines break quickly. Shallower lines that have several touches are more meaningful.
  • If you have to move the line to keep it "working", the trend has changed.

Channels

Draw a parallel line through the swing highs of an uptrend and you have a channel. The lower line suggests where to buy pullbacks; the upper line suggests where the next rally might stall. A strong push through the upper line can mean the trend is accelerating; a break of the lower line warns it may be ending.

Signs a trend is tiring

  • Each new push is smaller than the last.
  • Pullbacks get deeper and take longer.
  • Price fails to make a new high (in an uptrend) and then breaks below the last higher low.
Push 1Push 2Push 3Lower highLower low
A tiring uptrend: each push is shorter than the last, then a lower high and a lower low. The structure has turned.
Market stateHighsLowsCommon approach
UptrendHigherHigherBuy pullbacks toward the trendline or support
DowntrendLowerLowerSell rallies toward the trendline or resistance
RangeRoughly equalRoughly equalFade the edges or wait for a breakout

Key takeaways

  • An uptrend makes higher highs and higher lows; a downtrend makes lower highs and lower lows.
  • Trendlines join swing lows in an uptrend and swing highs in a downtrend; a third touch confirms them.
  • A parallel line through the opposite swings forms a channel.
  • Shrinking pushes, deeper pullbacks and a broken higher low warn that a trend is ending.