GC: COMEX open and 08:30 data breakout
Break of the 15-minute range after the 08:20 COMEX open, which includes the 08:30 data release. Stop on the other side, 2R target, flat by 11:30. Backtested on real CME GC 1-minute bars.
Short answer
We backtested the COMEX open and 08:30 data breakout on GC (gold futures (GC and MGC)) using real CME 1-minute bars from 2 Jan 2023 to 18 Oct 2026. It took 798 trades, won 37.3% of them and made -$3,279 after costs, an average of -0.02R per trade. It did not clear the bar: it failed 6 of 8 tests, including "Average R of +0.10 or more". Against a random-walk copy of the same data it scored 0.01R worse, so there is no clear edge over chance. It trades 17:50 to 21:00 IST in summer or 18:50 to 22:00 IST in winter (08:20 to 11:30 New York time).
Strategy setup
Times in your time zone: EST (America/New York), New York times beside them. Change it in your profile.
Real days from the data
Tue, 13 Oct 2026, short. In at 08:49 EST (08:49 New York), out at 10:21 EST (10:21 New York). 5-minute candles, 1 MGC, $90 at risk.
- Range
- The first 15 minutes after the start08:20 to 08:35 EST (08:20 to 08:35 New York)
- Entry
- First break one tick beyond the range, stop order08:35 to 11:30 EST (08:35 to 11:30 New York)
- Stop
- Opposite side of the range
- Target
- 2R, twice the distance to the stop
- Time exit
- Flat by this time at the latest11:30 EST (11:30 New York)
- Size
- Whole MGC micros, so the stop risks at most $150 (maximum 10). Skipped if one micro would risk more
- Frequency
- One trade a day
One tick lost on stop and market fills, a target needs price to trade a tick through it, the stop counts first when one bar touches both, and a target can't be hit in the bar a limit order fills. Commission is a placeholder $0.50 per micro per side, not Tradeify's actual rate.
Does it clear the bar?
Doesn't meet the barFixed before any strategy was run. Every check must hold after costs. Average R is -0.02 against -0.01 on random-walk copies of the same days (±0.02): no better than chance.
- At least 300 trades798
- Average R of +0.10 or more-0.02
- t-statistic of 3 or more-0.4
- Beats a random walk by 0.10R-0.01R over -0.01R
- Profitable in 3 of 4 years1 of 4
- Positive out-of-sample (2025 on)+0.00R
- Profit factor of 1.2 or more0.94
- Max drawdown within $1,000-$6,379
Net profit
-$3,279
after $1,745 costs
Trades
798
on 81.4% of days
Win rate
37.3%
avg win $182, avg loss -$115
Average R
-0.02
95% range -0.11 to +0.07
Profit factor
0.94
expectancy -$4 a trade
Max drawdown
-$6,379
vs $1,000 allowed on a $25K account
Equity curve
Running net profit, by quarter
By year
Net profit, and trades taken
How trades ended
Net profit by exit type
Days with a trade
Share of each year's trading days on which the strategy traded, and why the other days had no trade.
- 202394%
- 202490%
- 202586%
- 202650%
| Reason for no trade | Days | Share of all days |
|---|---|---|
| one micro risks more than the budget | 173 | 17.7% |
| no bar at the start of the range | 7 | 0.7% |
| no breakout before the time exit | 2 | 0.2% |
Breakdowns
Nothing is tuned on the out-of-sample years: 2023 to 2024 is the in-sample period, 2025 on is out-of-sample.
| Period | Trades | Win rate | Net | Avg R | Profit factor | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In-sample 2023 to 2024 | 475 | 38.1% | -$3,180 | -0.03 | 0.91 | -$6,379 |
| Out-of-sample 2025 to Oct 2026 | 323 | 36.2% | -$99 | 0.00 | 1.00 | -$2,866 |
| By year | Trades | Win rate | Net | Avg R | Profit factor | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 242 | 39.3% | -$1,877 | -0.02 | 0.89 | -$3,579 |
| 2024 | 233 | 36.9% | -$1,303 | -0.05 | 0.92 | -$3,776 |
| 2025 | 221 | 38.5% | $1,892 | +0.07 | 1.12 | -$2,442 |
| 2026 | 102 | 31.4% | -$1,991 | -0.15 | 0.75 | -$2,866 |
| By side | Trades | Win rate | Net | Avg R | Profit factor | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long | 408 | 34.8% | -$4,856 | -0.09 | 0.84 | -$5,456 |
| Short | 390 | 40.0% | $1,577 | +0.05 | 1.06 | -$2,467 |
Rule variations
Small changes to the rules, to check the result is not fragile. They are never used to choose the rules.
| Variation | Trades | Win rate | Net | Avg R | Profit factor | Max drawdown | Days skipped |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary rules | 798 | 37.3% | -$3,279 | -0.02 | 0.94 | -$6,379 | - |
| Target 1R | 798 | 48.9% | -$4,467 | -0.03 | 0.91 | -$6,253 | 182 |
| Target 1.5R | 798 | 40.9% | -$4,235 | -0.03 | 0.92 | -$6,918 | 182 |
| Target 3R | 798 | 34.5% | -$3,238 | -0.02 | 0.95 | -$6,838 | 182 |
| Range 5 min | 945 | 32.9% | -$9,311 | -0.05 | 0.89 | -$11,586 | 35 |
| Range 30 min | 692 | 41.2% | $337 | +0.03 | 1.01 | -$4,121 | 288 |
| Stop at the middle | 938 | 33.2% | -$10,971 | -0.06 | 0.87 | -$11,317 | 42 |
| Risk budget $250 | 922 | 37.7% | -$8,788 | -0.03 | 0.92 | -$13,367 | 58 |
Tradeify $25K evaluation
Target $1,500, trailing drawdown $1,000, daily loss $600. An attempt starts on each of 980 trading days in turn.
- Passed 122
- Failed on drawdown 777
- Unfinished 81
13.6% of finished attempts passed, in a median of 54 trading days. Attempts that start on consecutive days overlap, and with no edge a simulated evaluation passes or fails mostly by luck.
Hypothetical results from a backtest on CME GC futures, 2 Jan 2023 to 18 Oct 2026, run 19 October 2026. 104 strategies and variations were tried across the Strategy section, so the best few would look good by chance. Past performance does not predict future results, fills and costs are assumed, and an average of -0.02R with a 95% range of -0.11 to +0.07R can't be told apart from zero. Education, not trading advice.
More strategies
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- GC: Asia range sweep and reversalFade a sweep of the Asia high or low that closes back inside the range.
- GC: Previous-day high or lowSweep-and-reject at yesterday's high or low.
- GC: VWAP pullbackTrade with the trend when price pulls back to the day's VWAP.
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